Wednesday, 16 January 2013

Mobile Game Market to Reshuffle

Mobilephone game 2nd day stay ratio is going lower. As users are less and less sticky to a game and new client acqusition cost is hiking fast, smaller teams are being marginized and reshuffle is on the horizon. this is opposite to the general positive perspective on this industry. Early last year, Android teams are worried about profit, in April and May there were already companies with net profit over 1 million, by the end of the year there were 5 companies making over 10 million, some close to 20 million. It was expected that company with revenue over 50 million will be there this year ... Smaller teams doesn't enjoy operation and commerical resources. Large scale termination is coming closer. Developer for mobilephone games are 5 to 8 times more than webpage games. Since development period is shorter, product volume is far more than 10 times. Such stock is not being digested by the market. After fierce competition, a lot of them are to die out.
国内手机游戏次日留存率半年内不断走低,用户粘性直线下降.新用户获取成本(CAC)飙升,行业畸形发展;小团队逐渐边缘化,洗牌在即。这与外界普遍的认知相去甚远——多数人仍沉浸于手机游戏(主要是安卓联网游戏)爆炸式增长所营造的狂欢假象中:去年年初,安卓游戏团队还为如何盈利而苦恼;四五月已出现月收入和纯利均达数百万级别的公司;年底五家公司月收入规模超千万,更有佼佼者接近两千万;业内预测今年会出现营收破五千万的手游公司。纵观行业,去年手游整体规模32亿元,机构预测今年将破百亿…… 中小开发团队不具备运营能力和商务资源,倚重渠道却很难得到重视,很快会大面积死亡”,游戏业内人士常胜认为,手游CP(开发商)的总量是页游的5至8倍,开发周期短,产品数量是页游的数十倍,如此庞大的存量很难被市场消化,激烈搏杀之后注定大批被淘汰。

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